feat(samples): rework "Overshoot and collapse" as a renewable fishery

The non-renewable Resource (a Stock with no inflow) becomes a renewable
fishery with a true point of no return — an Allee threshold. Spawning
scales with density (~Fish^2) while natural deaths are linear (~Fish), so
below a critical density the deaths win and the stock slides to an
extinction it never recovers from; crowding deaths (~Fish^3) cap a healthy
stock at carrying capacity. A reinvesting fleet (Boats, Reinforcing)
overshoots the renewal rate and drags the fish under the threshold, then
starves and scraps itself.

The negative-positive-negative regrowth curve is the one shape the
proportional rule can't draw alone, so two relay Converters build it
(density to lift spawning to ~Fish^2, crowding for the ~Fish^3 ceiling) —
the Limits-to-growth crowding trick, doubled. At 16 nodes this is the
gallery's largest model and the only one with a Converter feeding a
Converter.

Tuned against the engine: Fish hold near 1000, cross the threshold (~200)
at t~40 as the catch overshoots, then go extinct and stay there; Boats
overshoot to ~450 and collapse back near their start by t=150. No
divergence; loops classify as expected (R: fleet reinvestment, birth
engine; B: natural/crowding/catch drains, scrapping).
This commit is contained in:
Julien Calixte
2026-06-21 13:04:18 +02:00
parent 59e3aafa63
commit e7a1bfb5af

View File

@@ -36,10 +36,11 @@
* Next, the dynamic the book is named for, and the one the gallery has saved until a
* reader knows every piece it needs:
*
* 12. Overshoot and collapse — a Reinforcing engine running on a *non-renewable*
* Stock (the first with no inflow): it overshoots the
* limit instead of settling at it, the dark twin of
* "Limits to growth" — the ceiling erodes, so it crashes.
* 12. Overshoot and collapse — a Reinforcing harvester on a *renewable* Resource with
* an extinction threshold (an Allee floor): a fleet
* overshoots the renewal rate and pushes the fishery past
* the point of no return. The dark twin of "Limits to
* growth" — the limit doesn't hold, it collapses for good.
*
* Last, the language pointed at a live debate — a classic trap (Shifting the burden to
* the intervenor, ch. 5) wearing today's clothes:
@@ -587,63 +588,117 @@ function driftToLowPerformance(): Model {
}
/**
* Overshoot and collapse — the dark twin of "Limits to growth". The same
* Reinforcing engine runs, but the limit here is a *non-renewable* Resource that
* only depletes: a Stock with no inflow, the first in the gallery. An economy
* (Capital) lives off it — extraction grows with both the Resource left and the
* Capital deployed (Resource, Capital → [+] → extraction), and the revenue is
* reinvested as new Capital (extraction → [+] → investment → Capital), so the loop
* Capital → extraction → investment → Capital carries no `` → Reinforcing. Capital
* climbs and extraction accelerates, but every unit burned is gone for good, so the
* Resource crosses the break-even level, the engine starves, and depreciation
* (Capital → [+] → depreciation, a Balancing drain) takes Capital down: it peaks,
* then collapses. Contrast "Predator and prey", whose prey regrows and so settles
* into oscillation — a finite Resource cannot, so it overshoots and crashes instead.
* Overshoot and collapse — the dark twin of "Limits to growth", on a *renewable*
* Resource with a point of no return. A fishery (Fish) regrows on its own, but
* reproduction needs fish to find each other: spawning scales with density
* (spawning = factor × Fish × density, density ∝ Fish, so ~Fish²), while natural
* deaths are merely linear (natural deaths = factor × Fish). Above a critical
* density the quadratic births win and the stock climbs to its carrying capacity
* (crowding deaths ~Fish³ cap it there); *below* it the linear deaths win and the
* stock slides to an extinction it cannot climb back from — the Allee threshold,
* the renewable resource's hidden floor.
*
* A fishing fleet (Boats) reinvests its catch into more boats
* (Boats → catch → fleet growth → Boats, no `` → Reinforcing), so the catch
* (catch = factor × Fish × Boats) accelerates and overshoots the renewal rate,
* dragging Fish under the threshold. Once there it is too late: even as the catch
* starves and the fleet scraps itself (Boats → [+] → scrapping, a Balancing drain),
* the Fish are gone for good and never recover. Contrast "Predator and prey", whose
* prey regrows from any level and so oscillates forever — here the prey has a floor
* it cannot climb back from, so a Reinforcing harvester collapses it permanently.
*
* The Allee curve is the one shape the proportional rule cannot draw alone (it needs
* net regrowth to go negativepositivenegative), so two relays build it: `density`
* (∝ Fish) lifts spawning to ~Fish², and `crowding` (∝ Fish²) lifts crowding deaths
* to ~Fish³ — the same crowding trick as "Limits to growth", doubled. The gallery's
* largest model, and the only one that needs a Converter feeding a Converter.
*/
function overshootAndCollapse(): Model {
// Resource on the left drains only downward (no inflow). Capital on the right runs
// a full Source → investment → Capital → depreciation → Sink column. The two
// coupling links — Capital → extraction and extraction → investment — cross in the
// open centre, where the R badge lands.
const resource = makeStock({ x: -240, y: 0 }, "Resource")
resource.initialValue = 1000
const extractionSink = makeCloud({ x: -240, y: 360 })
const extraction = makeFlow({ x: -240, y: 160 }, "extraction", resource.id, extractionSink.id)
// extraction = factor × Resource × Capital (both `+`): more capital extracts
// faster, scarcer resource slower. The bilinear term the non-negative floor tames.
extraction.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.0004 }
const capital = makeStock({ x: 240, y: 0 }, "Capital")
capital.initialValue = 5
const investmentSource = makeCloud({ x: 240, y: -360 })
const investment = makeFlow({ x: 240, y: -160 }, "investment", investmentSource.id, capital.id)
// investment = factor × extraction (its one `+` input): the revenue reinvested —
// a Flow feeding a Flow, the edge that closes the Reinforcing loop through Capital.
investment.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.5 }
const depreciationSink = makeCloud({ x: 240, y: 360 })
const depreciation = makeFlow({ x: 240, y: 160 }, "depreciation", capital.id, depreciationSink.id)
// depreciation = factor × Capital (its `+` input): the Balancing drain that wins
// once the Resource can no longer feed investment.
depreciation.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.04 }
// Fish (left) carries the whole renewal engine: a spawning inflow from the top, and
// three drains — natural deaths, crowding deaths, and the catch. Boats (right) runs a
// Source → fleet growth → Boats → scrappingSink column. The two coupling links —
// Boats → catch and catch → fleet growth — cross the open centre, where the R badge lands.
const fish = makeStock({ x: -420, y: 0 }, "Fish")
fish.initialValue = 1000
fish.unit = "tonnes"
// density ∝ Fish: how easily fish meet to spawn. Relays Fish into the births term so
// spawning reads as ~Fish² — the Allee mechanism (sparse fish breed slowly).
const density = makeConverter({ x: -700, y: -80 }, "density")
density.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 1 }
// crowding ∝ Fish² (Fish × density): the overcrowding pressure that lifts crowding
// deaths to ~Fish³, so the stock plateaus at its carrying capacity. A Converter read
// by a Converter — the only such wiring in the gallery.
const crowding = makeConverter({ x: -700, y: 80 }, "crowding")
crowding.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 1 }
const spawnSource = makeCloud({ x: -420, y: -320 })
const spawning = makeFlow({ x: -420, y: -160 }, "spawning", spawnSource.id, fish.id)
// spawning = factor × Fish × density (~Fish²): the Reinforcing birth engine that
// needs a crowd — it falls away faster than deaths as the Fish thin out.
spawning.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.00036 }
const deathSink = makeCloud({ x: -720, y: 280 })
const naturalDeaths = makeFlow({ x: -580, y: 180 }, "natural deaths", fish.id, deathSink.id)
// natural deaths = factor × Fish (linear): the Balancing drain that *wins* below the
// Allee threshold, where ~Fish² spawning can no longer keep up — and extinction follows.
naturalDeaths.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.06 }
const crowdSink = makeCloud({ x: -420, y: 320 })
const crowdingDeaths = makeFlow({ x: -420, y: 160 }, "crowding deaths", fish.id, crowdSink.id)
// crowding deaths = factor × Fish × crowding (~Fish³): the steep Balancing ceiling
// that holds the healthy stock at carrying capacity.
crowdingDeaths.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 3e-7 }
const catchSink = makeCloud({ x: -90, y: 220 })
const catching = makeFlow({ x: -255, y: 90 }, "catch", fish.id, catchSink.id)
// catch = factor × Fish × Boats (both `+`): more boats and more fish both lift the
// haul. This is what overshoots the renewal rate and pulls Fish under the threshold.
catching.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.0004 }
const boats = makeStock({ x: 420, y: 0 }, "Boats")
boats.initialValue = 5
const fleetSource = makeCloud({ x: 420, y: -320 })
const fleetGrowth = makeFlow({ x: 420, y: -160 }, "fleet growth", fleetSource.id, boats.id)
// fleet growth = factor × catch (its one `+` input): the revenue reinvested — a Flow
// feeding a Flow, the edge that closes the Reinforcing loop through Boats.
fleetGrowth.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.5 }
const scrapSink = makeCloud({ x: 420, y: 320 })
const scrapping = makeFlow({ x: 420, y: 160 }, "scrapping", boats.id, scrapSink.id)
// scrapping = factor × Boats (its `+` input): the Balancing drain that takes the fleet
// down once the catch can no longer feed fleet growth.
scrapping.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.04 }
return model(
"Overshoot and collapse",
[
resource,
extractionSink,
extraction,
capital,
investmentSource,
investment,
depreciationSink,
depreciation,
fish,
density,
crowding,
spawnSource,
spawning,
deathSink,
naturalDeaths,
crowdSink,
crowdingDeaths,
catchSink,
catching,
boats,
fleetSource,
fleetGrowth,
scrapSink,
scrapping,
],
[
link(resource, extraction, "+"),
link(capital, extraction, "+"),
link(extraction, investment, "+"),
link(capital, depreciation, "+"),
link(fish, density, "+"),
link(fish, crowding, "+"),
link(density, crowding, "+"),
link(fish, spawning, "+"),
link(density, spawning, "+"),
link(fish, naturalDeaths, "+"),
link(fish, crowdingDeaths, "+"),
link(crowding, crowdingDeaths, "+"),
link(fish, catching, "+"),
link(boats, catching, "+"),
link(catching, fleetGrowth, "+"),
link(boats, scrapping, "+"),
],
// Capital starts at 5, overshoots to ~250 by t≈39, and collapses back near its
// starting level by t=150 — the full boom-and-bust arc, no dead tail.
// Fish hold near carrying capacity (1000) while the fleet compounds, cross the Allee
// threshold (~200) around t≈40 as the catch overshoots, then go extinct and stay
// there; Boats overshoot to ~450 (t≈40) and collapse back near their start by t=150.
{ start: 0, stop: 150, dt: 1 },
)
}
@@ -787,7 +842,7 @@ export const SAMPLES: Sample[] = [
},
{
title: "Overshoot and collapse",
blurb: "A growth engine burns a finite Resource: it peaks, then crashes.",
blurb: "A fleet overfishes past the point of no return: the stock collapses for good.",
build: overshootAndCollapse,
},
{