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macroplan/docs/adr/0001-original-estimate-as-baseline.md
2026-06-16 23:50:48 +02:00

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# On-time vs. late is judged against the Original Estimate
A Feature's first committed delivery week (the **Original Estimate**, `◯`) is the immovable baseline for deciding whether a **Delivery** is on-time (`◉`) or late (`▲`). **Re-estimates** (`△`) are recorded and stay visible as slips, but they never move the baseline.
We chose this over judging against the most recent re-estimate because the Macroplan's purpose is to be an honest record of estimation accuracy and a source of **Learning** — judging against the latest re-plan would let the goalposts move and erase the very signal we want to keep. The trade-off is that it's less kind to the team (you can hit your re-plan and still read as late), which we accept deliberately.
## Consequences
- Every Feature must retain its Original Estimate for its whole lifetime, independent of any number of Re-estimates.
- The full slip history is preserved on the row (`◯` + every `△`), so the gap between promise and reality stays legible.