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feat/overs
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6a4fe59811 |
@@ -33,6 +33,14 @@
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* 11. Drift to low performance — a goal that erodes toward actual performance, so a
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* 11. Drift to low performance — a goal that erodes toward actual performance, so a
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* Reinforcing loop ratchets both downward.
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* Reinforcing loop ratchets both downward.
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*
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*
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* Last, the dynamic the book is named for, and the one the gallery has saved until a
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* reader knows every piece it needs:
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*
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* 12. Overshoot and collapse — a Reinforcing engine running on a *non-renewable*
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* Stock (the first with no inflow): it overshoots the
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* limit instead of settling at it, the dark twin of
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* "Limits to growth" — the ceiling erodes, so it crashes.
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*
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* These are plain data built from the same tested constructors the store uses
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* These are plain data built from the same tested constructors the store uses
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* (factory.ts), so every sample is a valid Model by construction. `build()`
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* (factory.ts), so every sample is a valid Model by construction. `build()`
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* mints fresh ids on each call, so loading a sample twice never collides.
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* mints fresh ids on each call, so loading a sample twice never collides.
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@@ -571,6 +579,68 @@ function driftToLowPerformance(): Model {
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)
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)
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}
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}
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/**
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* Overshoot and collapse — the dark twin of "Limits to growth". The same
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* Reinforcing engine runs, but the limit here is a *non-renewable* Resource that
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* only depletes: a Stock with no inflow, the first in the gallery. An economy
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* (Capital) lives off it — extraction grows with both the Resource left and the
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* Capital deployed (Resource, Capital → [+] → extraction), and the revenue is
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* reinvested as new Capital (extraction → [+] → investment → Capital), so the loop
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* Capital → extraction → investment → Capital carries no `−` → Reinforcing. Capital
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* climbs and extraction accelerates, but every unit burned is gone for good, so the
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* Resource crosses the break-even level, the engine starves, and depreciation
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* (Capital → [+] → depreciation, a Balancing drain) takes Capital down: it peaks,
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* then collapses. Contrast "Predator and prey", whose prey regrows and so settles
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* into oscillation — a finite Resource cannot, so it overshoots and crashes instead.
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*/
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function overshootAndCollapse(): Model {
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// Resource on the left drains only downward (no inflow). Capital on the right runs
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// a full Source → investment → Capital → depreciation → Sink column. The two
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// coupling links — Capital → extraction and extraction → investment — cross in the
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// open centre, where the R badge lands.
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const resource = makeStock({ x: -240, y: 0 }, "Resource")
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resource.initialValue = 1000
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const extractionSink = makeCloud({ x: -240, y: 360 })
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const extraction = makeFlow({ x: -240, y: 160 }, "extraction", resource.id, extractionSink.id)
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// extraction = factor × Resource × Capital (both `+`): more capital extracts
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// faster, scarcer resource slower. The bilinear term the non-negative floor tames.
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extraction.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.0004 }
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const capital = makeStock({ x: 240, y: 0 }, "Capital")
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capital.initialValue = 5
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const investmentSource = makeCloud({ x: 240, y: -360 })
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const investment = makeFlow({ x: 240, y: -160 }, "investment", investmentSource.id, capital.id)
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// investment = factor × extraction (its one `+` input): the revenue reinvested —
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// a Flow feeding a Flow, the edge that closes the Reinforcing loop through Capital.
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investment.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.5 }
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const depreciationSink = makeCloud({ x: 240, y: 360 })
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const depreciation = makeFlow({ x: 240, y: 160 }, "depreciation", capital.id, depreciationSink.id)
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// depreciation = factor × Capital (its `+` input): the Balancing drain that wins
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// once the Resource can no longer feed investment.
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depreciation.rule = { kind: "proportional", factor: 0.04 }
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return model(
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"Overshoot and collapse",
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[
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resource,
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extractionSink,
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extraction,
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capital,
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investmentSource,
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investment,
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depreciationSink,
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depreciation,
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],
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[
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link(resource, extraction, "+"),
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link(capital, extraction, "+"),
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link(extraction, investment, "+"),
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link(capital, depreciation, "+"),
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],
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// Capital starts at 5, overshoots to ~250 by t≈39, and collapses back near its
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// starting level by t=150 — the full boom-and-bust arc, no dead tail.
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{ start: 0, stop: 150, dt: 1 },
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)
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}
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/** The gallery, ordered simplest first. */
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/** The gallery, ordered simplest first. */
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export const SAMPLES: Sample[] = [
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export const SAMPLES: Sample[] = [
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{ title: "Bathtub", blurb: "A stock filled and drained — no feedback yet.", build: bathtub },
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{ title: "Bathtub", blurb: "A stock filled and drained — no feedback yet.", build: bathtub },
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@@ -624,4 +694,9 @@ export const SAMPLES: Sample[] = [
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blurb: "Goals erode toward actual: a Reinforcing slide downhill.",
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blurb: "Goals erode toward actual: a Reinforcing slide downhill.",
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build: driftToLowPerformance,
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build: driftToLowPerformance,
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},
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},
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{
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title: "Overshoot and collapse",
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blurb: "A growth engine burns a finite Resource: it peaks, then crashes.",
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build: overshootAndCollapse,
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},
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]
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]
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