feat(model): simulate models from rules over information links

Phase 2 brings Models to life. ADR-0004: behaviour comes from a small fixed
vocabulary of rules (Constant / Proportional / Gap) read over the inbound
Information Links, not free-form formulas — valid by construction.

- types: Rule union, SimSpec, initialValue; replaces the unused equation field
- simulation: forward-Euler engine, dependency-ordered evaluation, algebraic-loop
  detection, non-negative stocks, and a divergence guard
- io: validate and round-trip the new fields (F8)

README.md

@@ -19,6 +19,9 @@ Deployed at https://meadows.apoena.dev
     substrate; the domain Model is the source of truth.
   - [ADR-0003](./docs/adr/0003-flow-as-node-materialised-clouds.md) — a Flow is a
     node; Source/Sink clouds are materialised nodes.
+  - [ADR-0004](./docs/adr/0004-rate-rules-not-formulas.md) — simulation behaviour
+    comes from a small fixed vocabulary of rules over Information Links, not
+    free-form formulas.
 
 ## Stack
 

docs/adr/0004-rate-rules-not-formulas.md

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+# Behaviour comes from rules over Information Links, not free-form formulas
+
+_Part of [meadows](../../README.md) · see [DESIGN.md](../../DESIGN.md)._
+
+Numeric simulation (phase 2) makes a **Model** _alive_: Stocks accumulate over
+time, Flows and Converters recompute each instant. Two coupled decisions shape
+how a Model carries the numbers, and both trade expressive power for **valid by
+construction** — the right trade for a tool that exists to _popularise_ systems
+thinking, not to compete with Vensim.
+
+## Decision
+
+**1. The Information Link _is_ the declared dependency.** A Flow's or Converter's
+inputs are exactly the elements that link into it. There is no separate "equation
+references" namespace to keep in sync — the wiring you draw _is_ the wiring the
+simulator reads. The same signed graph the loop detector walks (ADR-0001) is the
+graph the simulator integrates, so the loops you _see_ classified R/B are the
+loops you _run_. They can never disagree.
+
+**2. A Flow/Converter computes from a small fixed vocabulary of `Rule`s, not a
+typed-in formula.** Each instantaneous element picks one rule and a plain number
+or two — never an expression:
+
+| Rule             | Value                       | Reads (via Information Links)             | Emergent behaviour         |
+| ---------------- | --------------------------- | ----------------------------------------- | -------------------------- |
+| **Constant**     | a fixed number              | nothing                                   | linear Stock change        |
+| **Proportional** | `factor × (its `+` inputs)` | the `+`-polarity inputs                   | exponential growth / decay |
+| **Gap**          | `factor × (level − target)` | the `+` input is _level_, `−` is _target_ | goal-seeking / asymptotic  |
+
+The famous curves are _compositions_ of these over the structure — a logistic
+S-curve is Proportional growth meeting a Gap-driven ceiling (limits-to-growth);
+goal-seeking decay is a lone Gap (coffee cooling). The user sets up a local rule;
+the global shape **emerges**. That emergence _is_ the lesson.
+
+**Polarity does double duty.** The `+`/`−` already captured for loop
+classification (ADR-0001) also selects each operand's role: Proportional reads
+its `+` inputs; Gap reads its `+` input as the level and its `−` input as the
+target. One gesture, two payoffs — no new per-link data.
+
+## Considered Options
+
+- **Free-form expression strings** (`birth rate = Population × fertility`) —
+  maximally expressive, and what `equation?: string` originally anticipated.
+  Rejected: needs a parser + a sandbox (never `eval`/`new Function`), invites
+  broken-formula and name-resolution errors (auto-names contain spaces), and lets
+  a learner _paint_ a curve instead of discovering it from structure.
+- **Pick the output curve** (label a Stock "exponential" / "logarithmic") —
+  rejected: it is the answer, not the cause, and it breaks the moment feedback
+  decides the shape. "Logarithmic" in particular has no honest local rule; what
+  people mean by it is asymptotic approach — which _is_ the Gap rule.
+- **Rules over Information Links (chosen)** — no parser, valid by construction,
+  and it teaches structure → behaviour.
+
+## Consequences
+
+- The domain types gain a `Rule` union on Flow/Converter (replacing the unused
+  `equation?: string`), an optional `initialValue` on Stock, and an optional
+  `SimSpec` (`start` / `stop` / `dt`) on the Model. All optional and additive, so
+  existing saved Models still load (F8); they are simply not _simulatable_ until
+  equipped.
+- **Algebraic loops are an error.** A cycle in the wiring is legitimate feedback
+  **iff it passes through a Stock** — the Stock supplies last-step state and so
+  breaks the within-step dependency. A cycle among only Flows/Converters has no
+  Stock to break it: the simulator cannot order it and rejects it. The simulator
+  reuses the cycle machinery to detect this; it is a new _sim-readiness_ check,
+  distinct from structural validity (validation.ts).
+- A reader seeing `{ kind: "gap", factor }` on a Flow and wondering where its
+  operands come from should look here: they are the Flow's inbound Information
+  Links, picked by Polarity.
+- The vocabulary starts deliberately small (Constant / Proportional / Gap —
+  enough for linear, exponential, and goal-seeking, and for the coffee and
+  savings samples). Growing it is additive: a new `kind` in the union plus a case
+  in the evaluator. Multi-input products (e.g. `Population × fertility`) are a
+  later increment, not a phase-2 blocker.

src/model/io.ts

@@ -21,6 +21,8 @@ import {
   type NodeKind,
   type Polarity,
   type Position,
+  type Rule,
+  type SimSpec,
 } from "./types"
 
 /** Pretty JSON so an exported Model is human-readable and diff-friendly (F8). */
@@ -49,6 +51,24 @@ function isPolarity(value: unknown): value is Polarity {
   return value === "+" || value === "-"
 }
 
+/** A Rule must be one of the fixed kinds with its numeric parameter (ADR-0004). */
+function isRule(value: unknown): value is Rule {
+  if (!isObject(value)) return false
+  if (value.kind === "constant") return isFiniteNumber(value.value)
+  if (value.kind === "proportional" || value.kind === "gap") return isFiniteNumber(value.factor)
+  return false
+}
+
+function isSimSpec(value: unknown): value is SimSpec {
+  return (
+    isObject(value) &&
+    isFiniteNumber(value.start) &&
+    isFiniteNumber(value.stop) &&
+    isFiniteNumber(value.dt) &&
+    value.dt > 0
+  )
+}
+
 /** Validate one node by kind, returning an error string or null when valid. */
 function nodeError(value: unknown, index: number): string | null {
   if (!isObject(value)) return `nodes[${index}] is not an object`
@@ -65,6 +85,17 @@ function nodeError(value: unknown, index: number): string | null {
     if (typeof value.source !== "string") return `${at}.source must be a string`
     if (typeof value.target !== "string") return `${at}.target must be a string`
   }
+  // Simulation fields (ADR-0004) are optional, but if present must be well-formed.
+  if (kind === "stock" && value.initialValue !== undefined && !isFiniteNumber(value.initialValue)) {
+    return `${at}.initialValue must be a finite number`
+  }
+  if (
+    (kind === "flow" || kind === "converter") &&
+    value.rule !== undefined &&
+    !isRule(value.rule)
+  ) {
+    return `${at}.rule must be a valid rule (constant/proportional/gap)`
+  }
   return null
 }
 
@@ -104,6 +135,9 @@ export function parseModel(text: string): ParseResult {
   if (typeof data.name !== "string") return { ok: false, error: "name must be a string" }
   if (!Array.isArray(data.nodes)) return { ok: false, error: "nodes must be an array" }
   if (!Array.isArray(data.infoLinks)) return { ok: false, error: "infoLinks must be an array" }
+  if (data.sim !== undefined && !isSimSpec(data.sim)) {
+    return { ok: false, error: "sim must be {start, stop, dt} numbers with dt > 0" }
+  }
 
   for (let i = 0; i < data.nodes.length; i++) {
     const error = nodeError(data.nodes[i], i)
@@ -134,6 +168,13 @@ export function parseModel(text: string): ParseResult {
 
   return {
     ok: true,
-    model: { version: MODEL_VERSION, id: data.id, name: data.name, nodes, infoLinks: links },
+    model: {
+      version: MODEL_VERSION,
+      id: data.id,
+      name: data.name,
+      nodes,
+      infoLinks: links,
+      ...(data.sim !== undefined && { sim: data.sim as SimSpec }),
+    },
   }
 }

src/model/simulation.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,228 @@
+/**
+ * Simulation engine (ADR-0004) — what makes a Model *alive*. Pure data in, time
+ * series out; it knows nothing of Vue or the canvas, so it is trivially testable
+ * and runs off any reactive frame.
+ *
+ * The system-dynamics loop, one step of `dt`:
+ *   1. Evaluate the instantaneous network — every Converter and Flow — in
+ *      dependency order, reading the *current* Stock values. A Converter/Flow
+ *      depends on the elements that link into it (ADR-0004: the Information Link
+ *      *is* the dependency); Stocks are state, available without ordering.
+ *   2. Integrate every Stock *simultaneously* (forward Euler):
+ *      `stock += dt × (Σ inflow rates − Σ outflow rates)`. All net rates are read
+ *      from the same pre-update state, so updating one Stock never feeds another
+ *      within the same step.
+ *
+ * A cycle in the wiring is legitimate feedback only if it passes through a Stock
+ * (the Stock supplies last-step state and breaks the within-step dependency). A
+ * cycle among only Converters/Flows is an **algebraic loop** — unorderable, and
+ * rejected by `evaluationOrder` / surfaced by `checkSimReady`.
+ */
+import {
+  type ConverterNode,
+  DEFAULT_SIM_SPEC,
+  type FlowNode,
+  type InformationLink,
+  type Model,
+  type Rule,
+  type SimSpec,
+} from "./types"
+
+/** Thrown when a Model cannot be simulated as wired (e.g. an algebraic loop). */
+export class SimulationError extends Error {
+  constructor(message: string) {
+    super(message)
+    this.name = "SimulationError"
+  }
+}
+
+/** A completed run: aligned `times` and per-element value tracks. */
+export interface Run {
+  /** The time at each recorded sample, `start … stop` in steps of `dt`. */
+  times: number[]
+  /** nodeId → its value at each time index (Stocks, Flows, Converters; not Clouds). */
+  series: Map<string, number[]>
+  /** True if the run ran past representable numbers and stopped early (see below). */
+  diverged: boolean
+}
+
+/** A Converter or Flow — the stateless, instantaneous elements an order applies to. */
+type Instant = ConverterNode | FlowNode
+
+/**
+ * Order the instantaneous network so each element is computed after everything
+ * it reads. Throws `SimulationError` on an algebraic loop (a Converter/Flow cycle
+ * with no Stock to break it). Stocks are excluded — they are state, not computed.
+ */
+export function evaluationOrder(model: Model): Instant[] {
+  const instant = model.nodes.filter(
+    (node): node is Instant => node.kind === "flow" || node.kind === "converter",
+  )
+  const ids = new Set(instant.map((node) => node.id))
+
+  // deps[x] = the instantaneous elements x reads (links from another Flow/Converter).
+  const deps = new Map<string, Set<string>>(instant.map((node) => [node.id, new Set<string>()]))
+  for (const link of model.infoLinks) {
+    if (ids.has(link.source) && ids.has(link.target)) deps.get(link.target)?.add(link.source)
+  }
+
+  const order: Instant[] = []
+  const resolved = new Set<string>()
+  while (order.length < instant.length) {
+    const next = instant.find(
+      (node) =>
+        !resolved.has(node.id) && [...(deps.get(node.id) ?? [])].every((d) => resolved.has(d)),
+    )
+    if (!next) {
+      const names = instant
+        .filter((node) => !resolved.has(node.id))
+        .map((node) => node.name)
+        .join(", ")
+      throw new SimulationError(
+        `Algebraic loop: ${names} depend on each other with no Stock to break the cycle.`,
+      )
+    }
+    resolved.add(next.id)
+    order.push(next)
+  }
+  return order
+}
+
+/** Evaluate one Rule given a way to read the values feeding in via `links`. */
+function evalRule(rule: Rule, links: InformationLink[], valueOf: (id: string) => number): number {
+  switch (rule.kind) {
+    case "constant":
+      return rule.value
+    case "proportional": {
+      // factor × the product of every `+`-polarity input (one input → factor × it).
+      let value = rule.factor
+      for (const link of links) if (link.polarity === "+") value *= valueOf(link.source)
+      return value
+    }
+    case "gap": {
+      // factor × (level − target): the `+` input is the level, the `−` the target.
+      const level = links.find((link) => link.polarity === "+")
+      const target = links.find((link) => link.polarity === "-")
+      return (
+        rule.factor * ((level ? valueOf(level.source) : 0) - (target ? valueOf(target.source) : 0))
+      )
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Run the Model and return aligned time series. Assumes a sim-ready Model
+ * (see `checkSimReady`); a missing rule evaluates to 0 and a missing initial
+ * value to 0 rather than throwing, so a half-built Model still produces a plot.
+ * Throws `SimulationError` only on an algebraic loop, which has no defined order.
+ */
+export function simulate(model: Model, spec: SimSpec = model.sim ?? DEFAULT_SIM_SPEC): Run {
+  const order = evaluationOrder(model)
+  const nodeById = new Map(model.nodes.map((node) => [node.id, node]))
+
+  const inbound = new Map<string, InformationLink[]>()
+  for (const link of model.infoLinks) {
+    const list = inbound.get(link.target)
+    if (list) list.push(link)
+    else inbound.set(link.target, [link])
+  }
+
+  const stocks = model.nodes.filter((node) => node.kind === "stock")
+  const flows = model.nodes.filter((node): node is FlowNode => node.kind === "flow")
+
+  const stockValues = new Map<string, number>(stocks.map((s) => [s.id, s.initialValue ?? 0]))
+
+  const times: number[] = []
+  const series = new Map<string, number[]>()
+  for (const node of model.nodes) if (node.kind !== "cloud") series.set(node.id, [])
+  let diverged = false
+
+  // dt ≤ 0 would never advance (and 0 diverges); a non-positive step means no run.
+  const steps = spec.dt > 0 ? Math.max(0, Math.floor((spec.stop - spec.start) / spec.dt)) : 0
+  for (let i = 0; i <= steps; i++) {
+    // A run-away Reinforcing loop over a long horizon can exceed what a float
+    // holds. Stop at the last valid sample and flag it rather than plotting NaN.
+    if (!stocks.every((s) => Number.isFinite(stockValues.get(s.id) ?? 0))) {
+      diverged = true
+      break
+    }
+
+    // 1. Evaluate the instantaneous network from the current Stock values.
+    const computed = new Map<string, number>()
+    const valueOf = (id: string): number => {
+      const node = nodeById.get(id)
+      if (!node) return 0
+      if (node.kind === "stock") return stockValues.get(id) ?? 0
+      if (node.kind === "cloud") return 0
+      return computed.get(id) ?? 0
+    }
+    for (const node of order) {
+      computed.set(
+        node.id,
+        node.rule ? evalRule(node.rule, inbound.get(node.id) ?? [], valueOf) : 0,
+      )
+    }
+
+    // Record this sample (Stocks at their current value, Flows/Converters as just computed).
+    times.push(spec.start + i * spec.dt)
+    for (const s of stocks) series.get(s.id)?.push(stockValues.get(s.id) ?? 0)
+    for (const node of order) series.get(node.id)?.push(computed.get(node.id) ?? 0)
+
+    if (i >= steps) break
+
+    // 2. Integrate every Stock simultaneously (forward Euler) — but with
+    // non-negative stocks: an outflow can't drain more than its source holds this
+    // step. Scale a stock's competing outflows together if they would overdraw,
+    // and apply the scaled rate to both ends so quantity is conserved. You can't
+    // infect more people than are susceptible — and that floor is exactly what
+    // stops a bilinear model (S × I) from flipping sign and diverging.
+    const rate = new Map<string, number>(flows.map((f) => [f.id, computed.get(f.id) ?? 0]))
+    for (const s of stocks) {
+      const available = stockValues.get(s.id) ?? 0
+      const drains = flows.filter((f) => f.source === s.id && (rate.get(f.id) ?? 0) > 0)
+      const totalOut = drains.reduce((sum, f) => sum + (rate.get(f.id) ?? 0), 0)
+      if (totalOut * spec.dt > available) {
+        const scale = available / (totalOut * spec.dt)
+        for (const f of drains) rate.set(f.id, (rate.get(f.id) ?? 0) * scale)
+      }
+    }
+
+    const next = new Map(stockValues)
+    for (const s of stocks) {
+      let net = 0
+      for (const flow of flows) {
+        const r = rate.get(flow.id) ?? 0
+        if (flow.target === s.id) net += r // an inflow fills it
+        if (flow.source === s.id) net -= r // an outflow drains it
+      }
+      next.set(s.id, (stockValues.get(s.id) ?? 0) + spec.dt * net)
+    }
+    for (const [id, value] of next) stockValues.set(id, value)
+  }
+
+  return { times, series, diverged }
+}
+
+/**
+ * What stands between this Model and a run, as human-readable lines (empty array
+ * = ready). Distinct from structural validity (validation.ts): a Model can be a
+ * perfectly valid diagram yet not carry the numbers a simulation needs.
+ */
+export function checkSimReady(model: Model): string[] {
+  const problems: string[] = []
+  for (const node of model.nodes) {
+    if (node.kind === "stock" && node.initialValue === undefined) {
+      problems.push(`${node.name} has no initial value.`)
+    }
+    if ((node.kind === "flow" || node.kind === "converter") && !node.rule) {
+      problems.push(`${node.name} has no rule yet.`)
+    }
+  }
+  try {
+    evaluationOrder(model)
+  } catch (error) {
+    if (error instanceof SimulationError) problems.push(error.message)
+    else throw error
+  }
+  return problems
+}

src/model/types.ts

@@ -31,6 +31,37 @@ export interface Position {
   y: number
 }
 
+/**
+ * How a Flow's rate or a Converter's value is computed — a small fixed
+ * vocabulary, *not* a free-form formula, so a Model stays valid by construction
+ * and teaches structure → behaviour (ADR-0004). Operands are read from the
+ * element's inbound Information Links; Polarity selects each operand's role.
+ *
+ *  - `constant`     — a fixed number; reads nothing. (→ linear Stock change)
+ *  - `proportional` — `factor ×` the product of its `+`-polarity inputs.
+ *                     (→ exponential growth/decay)
+ *  - `gap`          — `factor × (level − target)`, where the `+` input is the
+ *                     level and the `−` input the target. (→ goal-seeking)
+ */
+export type Rule =
+  | { kind: "constant"; value: number }
+  | { kind: "proportional"; factor: number }
+  | { kind: "gap"; factor: number }
+
+/**
+ * The run parameters for a simulation: integrate from `start` to `stop` in steps
+ * of `dt` (forward Euler). Optional on a Model; absent means the diagram phase or
+ * a not-yet-simulated Model — the engine falls back to `DEFAULT_SIM_SPEC`.
+ */
+export interface SimSpec {
+  start: number
+  stop: number
+  dt: number
+}
+
+/** Sensible default run when a Model carries no `sim` of its own. */
+export const DEFAULT_SIM_SPEC: SimSpec = { start: 0, stop: 100, dt: 1 }
+
 interface BaseNode {
   id: string
   position: Position
@@ -60,8 +91,8 @@ export interface FlowNode extends BaseNode {
   source: string
   /** Node id of the Stock or Cloud the Flow feeds into. */
   target: string
-  /** Rate expression, recomputed each instant. Optional in the diagram phase. */
+  /** How its rate is computed each instant (ADR-0004). Optional in the diagram phase. */
-  equation?: string
+  rule?: Rule
 }
 
 /**
@@ -71,8 +102,8 @@ export interface FlowNode extends BaseNode {
 export interface ConverterNode extends BaseNode {
   kind: "converter"
   name: string
-  /** Expression or constant. Optional in the diagram phase. */
+  /** How its value is computed each instant (ADR-0004). Optional in the diagram phase. */
-  equation?: string
+  rule?: Rule
 }
 
 /**
@@ -107,4 +138,6 @@ export interface Model {
   name: string
   nodes: ModelNode[]
   infoLinks: InformationLink[]
+  /** Run parameters for simulation (ADR-0004). Optional; absent → not yet simulated. */
+  sim?: SimSpec
 }