macroplan/docs/adr/0001-original-estimate-as-baseline.md

On-time vs. late is judged against the Original Estimate

A Feature's first committed delivery week (the Original Estimate, ◯) is the immovable baseline for deciding whether a Delivery is on-time (◉) or late (▲). Re-estimates (△) are recorded and stay visible as slips, but they never move the baseline.

We chose this over judging against the most recent re-estimate because the Macroplan's purpose is to be an honest record of estimation accuracy and a source of Learning — judging against the latest re-plan would let the goalposts move and erase the very signal we want to keep. The trade-off is that it's less kind to the team (you can hit your re-plan and still read as late), which we accept deliberately.

Consequences

• Every Feature must retain its Original Estimate for its whole lifetime, independent of any number of Re-estimates.
• The full slip history is preserved on the row (◯ + every △), so the gap between promise and reality stays legible.